Calculate the odds of losing streaks at your win rate. Most traders quit during normal drawdowns.
| Consecutive Losses | Probability in Next N Trades | Likelihood |
|---|
A drawdown is a period where your trading account declines from a peak before recovering. Even the best trading strategies experience losing streaks — it's a mathematical certainty, not a sign of failure.
This calculator helps you answer the critical question: What are the odds of experiencing N consecutive losses at my win rate? Most traders severely underestimate these probabilities and quit during drawdowns that remain plausible under ordinary variance.
Consider a strategy with a 60% win rate (which sounds excellent):
If you're not prepared for these drawdowns psychologically and financially, you'll abandon a profitable strategy during a normal variance period.
Win rate alone doesn't determine profitability. A useful expectancy estimate combines:
Positive estimated expectancy can coexist with losing streaks. Size positions so the modeled streak is survivable, and remember that historical inputs do not guarantee future results.
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