$
%
Worked example: 55%
%
Worked example: +3%
%
Worked example: -2%
days
Expected End Balance
-
Expected Gain
-
Expected Return
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Max Expected Drawdown
-
Expected Value/Trade
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Total Trades
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Monte Carlo Simulation (100 Paths)
Growth Milestones
Time to 2x ($-) -
Time to 5x ($-) -
Time to 10x ($-) -
Model the outcome. Inspect the live record.
TargetHit publishes the trade history for five strategies, so you can choose the inputs and judge the record yourself.
View Public Strategy Records →

Understanding Compound Trading Growth

Most compound calculators assume fixed returns and show unrealistic hockey-stick growth curves. Real trading involves wins AND losses in random sequences, creating drawdowns even with positive expectancy.

This calculator uses Monte Carlo simulation to model realistic trading outcomes. Instead of assuming smooth compounding, it simulates 100 different trading paths based on your win rate and average win/loss sizes. This reveals:

The pre-filled values are a worked example, not a forecast. Replace them with your own assumptions or with figures you calculate from a strategy record, and test several less-favorable scenarios before relying on the output.

Understanding the math behind compounding helps you set realistic expectations, properly size your positions, and avoid over-leveraging during drawdown periods.

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