What win rate do you NEED to be profitable? Most traders have no idea. Find out instantly.
Most traders obsess over their win rate — "I need to win 70% of my trades!" But that's the wrong metric. A 70% win rate with poor risk/reward will still blow your account. A 40% win rate with strong R:R will print money.
The break-even win rate is the minimum win percentage you need to be profitable given your average win and loss sizes. It's calculated using this formula: Break-Even WR = Avg Loss / (Avg Win + Avg Loss)
For example, if you average +5% on wins and -3% on losses, your break-even win rate is 37.5%. Win more than 37.5% of your trades, and you're profitable. Win less, and you're slowly bleeding money.
Consider these two traders:
Trader A sounds impressive at first — 70% wins! But their poor risk management (risking 5% to make 2%) means they're unprofitable. Trader B, despite losing 60% of trades, has a strong R:R ratio and is consistently profitable.
Expected return combines both sides of the distribution: (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). It is more informative than win rate alone, but it remains an estimate based on the quality and size of your sample.
Strategy statistics change as trades close. TargetHit keeps five strategy records public so you can inspect the current wins, losses and trade history, then enter the numbers you consider relevant here.
A public record gives you the inputs; this calculator gives you the break-even threshold. Neither removes market risk.